By The Futuring Alliance
Developed by the Joint Research Centre (JRC) of the European Commission, the Polycrisis Exploration Workshop is part of the Knowledge4Policy toolkit designed to support policymakers in navigating systemic risks and interdependent crises.
In a world of accelerating change and uncertainty, crises are no longer isolated events. They are interconnected, compounding, and increasingly unpredictable. From climate shocks and geopolitical tensions to technological disruption and economic instability, we are living in what many now call a polycrisis era.
So how do we prepare? And how can we enable more resilient, forward-looking policy decisions?
Enter the Polycrisis Exploration Workshop—a strategic facilitation tool developed to help policy teams, researchers, and decision-makers engage with complexity, anticipate cascading risks, and identify robust interventions. This article offers a brief guide to the workshop’s value and how to apply it in your context.
Strategic Choices in a Complex Landscape
Risk is ever-present. But today’s risks—ranging from pandemics and energy crises to cyberattacks and ecological tipping points—are increasingly extreme, interconnected, and amplifying one another. The most severe impacts often emerge when multiple crises collide and cascade across sectors and regions.
Recognizing these dynamics is a critical first step toward more effective and inclusive policymaking. At the same time, high-stakes decisions are being made—on everything from climate policy and AI regulation to global trade and energy transitions. These choices shape the systemic conditions under which future crises could unfold.
Strategic planning must therefore incorporate both foresight and complexity: not only identifying emerging risks, but also understanding how they may interact—and how our decisions may influence them.
What the Workshop Offers
The Polycrisis Exploration Workshop is a flexible, practical tool that can be used in policy labs, foresight units, crisis simulations, or interdisciplinary retreats. It helps participants:
- Enhance risk awareness by exploring a broad spectrum of plausible future risks and understanding different stakeholders’ perspectives.
- Map future polycrises, investigating how interconnected and cascading impacts could affect a specific policy domain.
- Identify effective interventions that mitigate risks, reduce vulnerabilities, and align with long-term policy goals.
A Role for Collective Intelligence
This workshop relies on collective intelligence—structured collaboration between actors from different fields, sectors, and perspectives. This enables:
- Richer insights and more diverse viewpoints
- Cross-sectoral understanding of vulnerabilities
- Co-creation of strategic options grounded in both policy and practice
Such exercises complement traditional expert- or data-led risk assessments, bringing depth and creativity to future-oriented thinking.
Facilitating the Workshop: A Practical Guide
The workshop can be run in a half-day or full-day format and includes:
- Framing the scope: selecting a relevant policy area or strategic issue
- Scanning the risk landscape: identifying systemic risks and weak signals
- Exploring interdependencies: building out potential cascading effects
- Scenario thinking: simulating plausible polycrises
- Strategic dialogue: identifying leverage points for policy intervention
- Action planning: translating insights into priorities and next steps
Clear facilitation, inclusive participation, and documentation of insights are key to turning exploration into impact.
The Joint Research Centre of the European Commission has developed an excellent toolkit to guide this process, including templates, methods, and facilitation tips.Explore it here:
https://knowledge4policy.ec.europa.eu/polycrisis-toolkit_en
